April 16th, 2014 Monte Carlo

Here comes another day with a lot of handicap matches, 12 matches at the schedule, 5 of them are Handy matches. Here they are, followed with other 7 matches, just to show calculated margins for other matches.

FOGNINI Fabio - BAUTISTA AGUT Roberto

Fognini is the clay specialist and his score this year (75% service games won, 30% receive games won) is similar to the last year score 77% - 32%. His opponent plays his first clay tournament this year and his score last year was 72% - 32%. Our Handy formula says that Bautista Agut could be a tough opponent to Fognini's service, giving the margin of 0.031 which is almost on the borderline of acceptance for handicap betting. So, we bet Bautista Agut handicap +1.5 set at Pinnacle odds 1.680.

LLODRA Michael - ROSOL Lukas

Llodra hasn't played many games at the clay last year, just 40 serve games with 80% won, and 38 receive games with 24% won. This is the first tournament of the year at this surface for both players. Rosol had similar stats last year, 82% - 20%. The handy formula says that this is the tight match with just 0.002 margin, so we bet Rosol handicap +1.5 set at Pinnacle odds 1.417.


DIMITROV Grigor - RAMOS Albert

Dimitrov plays his first clay tournament this year, and his stats last year were 80% - 28%. Ramos plays better at clay surface than last year. His score this year is 78% - 31%, and last year he had 77% - 24%, so he significantly improved his receiving game abilities. Exactly because of this fact, he will be tough opponent to beat in straight sets for Dimitrov. Handy formula gives advantage to Dimitrov for 0.032 points, so we bet Ramos at odds 2.190 in Pinnacle.

WAWRINKA Stanislas - CILIC Marin

Wawrinka has a monster service not only at hard surface but also at clay. His stats last year were 86% - 27%, but he hasn't played any match this year at clay. Neither Cilic played any tournament at clay until this one, and his last year stats are 80% - 29%. With that stats, our Handy formula gives Wawrinka the winning margin of 0.031 points, so we bet Cilic handicap +1.5 set odds 1.676 offered by Pinnacle.

DOLGOPOLOV Alexandr - GARCIA-LOPEZ Guillermo

Dolgopolov's stats at clay last year weren't much, just 75%-19%, but his performance this year shows large improvements achieving 86% - 25%. But, over the net, there is another player whose performance has also improved this year, 73% - 32%, against 69% - 27% last year. Saying all that, Handy formula estimates that Dolgopolov is the favorite of this match with the margin of 0.018. Pinnacle offers odds 2.130 for Garcia-Lopez's handicap +1.5 set win and we bet it.

Other matches of the day with winning margin calculated by our Handy formula:
0.509 Nadal - Gabashvili
0.363 Almagro - Mahut
0.150 Federer - Stepanek
0.137 Raonic - Lu
0.127 Robredo - Benneteau
0.083 Monfils - Carreno Busta
0.042 Andujar - Seppi